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Friday, Jan 27, 2012 - Last Blog on Earth | News

Source: Poll has DeMaio in the lead, other three major candidates bunched up

38 percent of likely voters are undecided

By David Rolland
filner6 Bob Filner is this close to Fletcher and Dumanis in recent poll.
- Photo by Dave Maass

Today, San Diego Rostra posted results of a poll, commissioned by labor interests, of high-propensity voters in the San Diego mayoral primary election in June. The blogger, Jim Sills, said his post was based on "reliable sources," indicating that he had not seen the poll with his own eyes. Sills' sources gave him these numbers:

Carl DeMaio: 26 percent

Nathan Fletcher: 17 percent

Bonnie Dumanis: 16 percent

Bob Filner: 14 percent

Sills noted that those numbers included "leaners," which I assume means respondents who said they were leaning toward a particular candidate but weren't certain.

I, too, have not laid eyes on the poll, but those numbers closely match what I'd heard from several politicos. However, my own reliable source shed additional light on the "leaner" numbers:

Carl DeMaio: 22 percent, plus 4 percent leaning his way.

Nathan Fletcher: 15 percent, plus 2 percent leaning.

Bonnie Dumanis: 12 percent, plus 4 percent leaning.

Bob Filner: 13 percent, plus 2 percent leaning (making his total 15 percent rather than the 14 percent Sills reported).

In any case, Fletcher, Dumanis and Filner are all bunched up within the poll's 3-percent (plus / minus) margin of error, meaning that despite the crowing among the Fletcher camp today, it's impossible to say with certainty who's in second, third and fourth place among likely voters.

What's clear is that DeMaio has done a good job of getting his message out and that Filner has done a lousy job of distinguishing himself as the Democratic alternative to three Republicans in a city where Democrats outnumber Republicans.

It's worth noting that, according to this poll (conducted in December, my source says, and not early January, as Sills reported), 38 percent of likely voters—more than a third—are up for grabs.


 
 
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